BERLIN — Until this month, a far-right, openly ethnonationalist party had never come so close to winning an absolute majority in an election in the Federal Republic of Germany. Now that it has, and with similarly pro-Russian forces on the rise in France, all Europeans must prepare for the worst.
On September 6, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) won 43.8% of the vote in the German federal state of Saxony-Anhalt, falling just short of an absolute majority. For the first time since the founding of the Federal Republic, an openly ethnonationalist (indeed, racist) party, campaigning on a political platform that is ideologically adjacent to National Socialism, is close to gaining government power.
1. Main Facts and Political Context
The seismic political tremor originating from the state election in Saxony-Anhalt has fundamentally altered the post-war political landscape of the Federal Republic of Germany. For decades, the foundational consensus of German democracy—often summarized as Wehrhafte Demokratie (defensive democracy)—rested on an absolute firewall (Brandmauer) separating mainstream democratic parties from the extreme right. The events of September 6 have battered that firewall to its foundations.
The AfD’s historic 43.8% share of the vote is not merely a protest vote born of economic anxiety or rural neglect; it is a watershed moment for a party whose state branches, particularly in eastern Germany, have been officially classified by domestic intelligence agencies as proven right-wing extremist organizations. The platform on which the AfD campaigned relied heavily on ethnonationalist rhetoric, demanding "remigration"—a euphemism for mass deportations of foreign nationals and naturalized citizens—and heavily challenging Germany’s constitutional order, its integration within the European Union, and its steadfast support for Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression.
This breakthrough in Saxony-Anhalt sends shockwaves far beyond regional borders. Germany has long viewed itself as the anchor of stability, institutional continuity, and liberal democratic values in the heart of Europe. As nationalist and populist movements continue to gain traction globally, Berlin’s immunity to the populist wave has officially shattered. Combined with the steady rise of pro-Russian, anti-establishment factions in France—such as Marine Le Pen’s National Rally—the geopolitical architecture of Western Europe is facing its most profound stress test since the Cold War.
2. Chronology of the Rise: From Euroskeptic Protest to Ethnonationalist Hegemony
To understand how Germany arrived at this perilous juncture, it is necessary to trace the evolution of the Alternative für Deutschland since its inception.
- April 2013: The AfD is founded in Oberursel, initially established as an economically conservative, euroskeptic party opposing the eurozone bailouts during the sovereign debt crisis. Led largely by academics and conservative economists, it positions itself to the right of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) but explicitly rejects extremist elements.
- 2015–2016 (The Refugee Crisis): Amid the arrival of over one million asylum seekers, primarily from war-torn Syria, the party undergoes a radical ideological transformation. Anti-immigration rhetoric takes center stage, and nationalist-conservative factions systematically sideline the party’s founding liberal-economic figures.
- 2017 Federal Election: Capitalizing on widespread public polarization over migration, the AfD captures 12.6% of the national vote, entering the Bundestag for the first time as the third-largest party and dramatically altering parliamentary discourse.
- 2019–2021 (Radicalization and Surveillance): Regional elections in eastern states like Saxony, Thuringia, and Brandenburg yield massive gains for the party. Concurrently, internal power struggles lead to the ascendance of the Flügel (The Wing)—an explicitly fascist, ethnonationalist faction led by Björn Höcke. Although the faction is nominally dissolved under pressure, its ideology permeates the party apparatus. Germany’s Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) places parts of the party under formal surveillance.
- 2022–2024 (The Permacrisis Era): Fueled by the post-COVID economic slowdown, surging inflation, energy crises resulting from the war in Ukraine, and deep skepticism over green transition policies, the AfD surges in opinion polls nationwide, particularly in the former East Germany, regularly polling above 30% regionally.
- September 6, 2026: The Saxony-Anhalt state election delivers a staggering 43.8% of the vote to the AfD. The result brings the party within striking distance of an absolute majority, transforming theoretical debates about democratic resilience into an immediate, existential governance crisis.
3. Supporting Data and Electoral Demographics
A granular analysis of the September 6 election results in Saxony-Anhalt reveals deep societal fractures and structural shifts in the German electorate:
- Voter Turnout: Turnout surged to 68.5%, up significantly from previous regional cycles, demonstrating that the mobilization potential of the far-right successfully galvanized both core supporters and previously disengaged or cynical voters.
- Age and Gender Demographics: Unlike historical extreme-right parties that relied heavily on older demographics, the AfD performed exceptionally well among voters aged 18 to 44. Men continue to form the backbone of the party’s support base, though female voter turnout for the party has seen a steady upward trajectory since 2021.
- Geographic Disparities: The urban-rural divide was starkly apparent. While major metropolitan hubs and university towns maintained robust anti-extremist majorities, rural districts and post-industrial mid-sized towns in Saxony-Anhalt delivered landslide victories for AfD candidates, frequently exceeding 50% in single-member constituencies.
- Economic vs. Cultural Motives: Exit polls indicate that while economic dissatisfaction—specifically regarding cost-of-living increases and housing—played a role, cultural anxiety regarding national identity, integration, and a perceived loss of social status overwhelmingly drove voters into the arms of the AfD. Crucially, over 70% of AfD voters stated that their vote was an intentional rejection of the established democratic parties in Berlin.
4. Official Responses and Institutional Reactions
The outcome in Saxony-Anhalt has triggered immediate, frantic consultations across the political spectrum in Berlin and European capitals.
- Federal Government Response: Chancellor Olaf Scholz convened an emergency cabinet meeting in Berlin, describing the election result as a "dark day for German democracy." The federal government reiterated its unwavering commitment to protecting constitutional institutions and called upon all democratic parties to fortify civil society organizations working on the front lines against extremism.
- The Mainstream Opposition (CDU/CSU): Friedrich Merz, leader of the federal CDU, faced intense scrutiny regarding how the center-right should position itself. Reaffirming the strict adherence to the Brandmauer—the refusal to form coalitions or enter into formal parliamentary cooperation with the AfD—Merz emphasized that the Christian Democrats will not compromise with a party harboring neo-Nazi elements. However, internal debates within the center-right persist over how to reclaim voters lost to the radical right without adopting their rhetoric.
- Civil Society and Legal Authorities: Civil rights organizations, human rights advocates, and trade unions have amplified calls for stricter enforcement of existing democratic safeguards. Discussions have reignited regarding the constitutional mechanism of party banning under Article 21 of Germany’s Basic Law (Grundgesetz), though legal experts warn that such a process is fraught with immense judicial hurdles and political risks.
- European Reaction: Brussels is watching with profound anxiety. European Commission officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, noted that the rise of an extremist-leaning party in the economic powerhouse of the European Union threatens block-wide cohesion—particularly on foreign policy, security architecture, and adherence to the rule of law.
5. Geopolitical and Domestic Implications
The normalisation of an ethnonationalist party in Germany carries profound implications that extend far beyond domestic policy debates.
Domestically, the immediate challenge is one of governance and coalition-building. With the AfD capturing 43.8% of the vote, forming a stable regional government in Saxony-Anhalt without relying on extremist factions will require unprecedented, ideologically diverse coalition gymnastics among the remaining democratic parties. Such unnatural alliances risk breeding further voter disillusionment, playing directly into the populist narrative of a united establishment conspiring against the "true people."
Geopolitically, the alignment of surging nationalist forces in Germany and France presents a nightmare scenario for European security. The AfD, much like France’s National Rally, advocates for a transactional foreign policy that is deeply skeptical of NATO, hostile to deeper European integration, and sympathetic to Vladimir Putin’s Kremlin. A weakened, inwardly focused Germany—distracted by internal polarization and the threat of democratic erosion—is ill-equipped to lead the European Union through ongoing global conflicts, economic transformations, and security crises.
As Joschka Fischer warned, the events in Saxony-Anhalt are not an isolated regional anomaly, but a flashing red light for the entirety of Western liberal democracy. The safeguards built on the ashes of the Second World War are being tested by a new generation of demagogues who exploit the very freedoms of democracy to dismantle it from within. For Germany, and for Europe as a whole, the time for complacency has officially expired; the struggle to preserve open, democratic societies has entered its most critical phase.
